Wed, Nov 25, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Winnipeg Jets 3, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 26 | 113 | 07 | 326 |
| WSH | 215 | 211 | 18 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:12WSHJustin WilliamsAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 6:38WPGTyler MyersAssists: Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 13:01WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Blake Wheeler, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P1 18:46WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 10:03WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Nate Schmidt, Dmitry Orlov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 13:53WPGMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Bryan Little · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 16:22WSHDmitry OrlovGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 13:44WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Marcus Johansson · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:31WPGAndrew Ladd: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:47WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:24WSHTom Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 6:24WPGAnthony Peluso: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:17WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:51WSHJason Chimera: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Burmistrov – Ehlers10:11
xG 0.43–0.11 (79%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little13:31
xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Stafford – Perreault – Scheifele11:54
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Peluso – Lowry – Copp8:41
xG 0.26–0.54 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Trouba7:19
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Pardy12:25
xG 0.34–0.42 (45%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
- Enstrom – Myers16:52
xG 0.65–0.91 (42%)attempts 20–16goals 2–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Latta – Wilson8:06
xG 0.67–0.28 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom14:56
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Chimera – Beagle – Burakovsky10:17
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov12:01
xG 0.64–0.77 (45%)attempts 12–15goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner15:37
xG 0.77–0.43 (64%)attempts 15–19goals 1–2
- Chorney – Orlov12:53
xG 0.30–0.16 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Carlson – Schmidt18:22
xG 0.84–0.86 (49%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).