Wed, Nov 25, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vancouver Canucks 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 110 | 19 | 328 |
| MIN | 113 | 05 | 115 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:39MINThomas VanekPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 19:32VANRadim VrbataAssists: Jared McCann, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 11:15VANRadim VrbataPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 5:31VANJannik HansenGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 18:40MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikko Koivu · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:12VANAlexandre Burrows: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:43MINRyan Carter: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:48VANYannick Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:27VANAlexander Edler: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Cracknell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Higgins – McCann11:51
xG 0.63–0.13 (83%)attempts 22–3goals 1–0
- Prust – Cracknell – Dorsett11:19
xG 0.17–0.07 (72%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen12:51
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Burrows – Horvat – Virtanen10:30
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev18:51
xG 0.45–0.06 (87%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Weber15:24
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Sbisa – Bartkowski15:37
xG 0.19–0.69 (21%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Niederreiter15:10
xG 0.57–0.24 (71%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Carter – Coyle – Bertschy5:58
xG 0.11–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Porter – Haula – Gabriel4:16
xG 0.04–0.01 (83%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Carter – Haula – Coyle2:18
xG 0.02–0.03 (47%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon20:52
xG 0.70–0.37 (65%)attempts 21–15goals 0–1
- Prosser – Folin11:11
xG 0.08–0.23 (27%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba16:58
xG 0.23–0.53 (31%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).