Wed, Nov 25, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 19 | 04 | 18 | 11 | 322 |
| DET | 013 | 211 | 010 | 00 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11BOSLandon FerraroAssists: Frank Vatrano, Joonas Kemppainen · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 2:26DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Alexey Marchenko, Teemu Pulkkinen · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 14:53DETTomas TatarAssists: Riley Sheahan, Darren Helm · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 18:16BOSColin MillerAssists: Loui Eriksson, David Krejci · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 3:32BOSFrank VatranoGWGAssists: Colin Miller, Matt Beleskey · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:02DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:07BOSAdam McQuaid: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:03DETDylan Larkin: Holding2 min
- P3 6:45BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:26DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:42BOSFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Spooner – Connolly – Vatrano6:01
xG 0.09–0.33 (21%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Hayes10:39
xG 0.19–0.48 (28%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
- Eriksson – Krejci – Beleskey12:51
xG 0.46–0.85 (35%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Ferraro – Kemppainen6:06
xG 0.02–0.46 (4%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Miller3:06
xG 0.19–0.04 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Trotman3:10
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Miller10:40
xG 0.24–0.43 (35%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Helm – Glendening7:48
xG 0.66–0.10 (87%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin10:24
xG 0.68–0.17 (80%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Richards – Datsyuk – Pulkkinen11:35
xG 0.70–0.29 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan9:53
xG 0.26–0.14 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – DeKeyser14:08
xG 1.13–0.22 (84%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green16:23
xG 1.12–0.32 (78%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
- Smith – Marchenko11:01
xG 0.77–0.15 (83%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).