Wed, Nov 25, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Ottawa Senators 5, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 214 | 211 | 14 | 529 |
| COL | 111 | 010 | 222 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:54OTTShane PrinceAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 9:01OTTShane PrinceAssists: Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 10:36COLChris WagnerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 1:48OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Mike Hoffman, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 18:13OTTZack SmithGWGAssists: Marc Methot, Shane Prince · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 10:50COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 12:26COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 19:53OTTMika ZibanejadENAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.43 xG5–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:51OTTMark Borowiecki: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:18OTTMarc Methot: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 6:37COLAndreas Martinsen: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:37OTTChris Neil: Instigator2 min
- P3 6:37OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 6:37OTTChris Neil: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 8:42COLErik Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:58OTTMilan Michalek: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:11OTTMarc Methot: Interference2 min
- P3 19:49OTTMilan Michalek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Smith – Prince7:47
xG 0.69–0.12 (85%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Ryan – Turris – Hoffman10:23
xG 0.49–0.45 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Stone – Zibanejad – Lazar12:27
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Michalek – Chiasson – Pageau9:40
xG 0.09–0.40 (19%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCowen – Ceci14:59
xG 0.40–0.24 (62%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman10:04
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Methot – Karlsson17:40
xG 0.82–0.87 (49%)attempts 19–20goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Landeskog – MacKinnon15:10
xG 0.55–0.26 (67%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Iginla – Grigorenko – Martinsen10:07
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Comeau – Soderberg – McLeod11:50
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Skille – Wagner – Everberg4:47
xG 0.05–0.52 (9%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Johnson14:56
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Holden – Barrie17:45
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 26–10goals 0–1
- Redmond – Gormley11:21
xG 0.44–0.65 (41%)attempts 10–13goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).