Fri, Nov 27, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Nashville Predators 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 112 | 010 | 112 | 01 | 235 |
| PHI | 110 | 010 | 110 | 16 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:44NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Mike Ribeiro, James Neal · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 4:00PHIMichael Del ZottoAssists: Brayden Schenn, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 4:57PHIColin McDonaldAssists: Evgeny Medvedev, Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 19:40NSHMike FisherAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.29 xG2–2
- OT 4:08PHIShayne GostisbeherePPGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.21 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:53PHIMatt Read: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:38PHIJakub Voracek: Holding2 min
- P2 14:11NSHColin Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:25NSHBarret Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:25PHIColin McDonald: Fighting5 min
- OT 2:40NSHCody Hodgson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Jarnkrok
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Wilson – Smith13:19
xG 0.75–0.14 (85%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Nystrom – Watson – Sissons3:06
xG 0.02–0.02 (60%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg14:27
xG 0.63–0.70 (47%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Nystrom – Jarnkrok – Watson4:33
xG 0.05–0.20 (19%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm15:42
xG 0.72–0.47 (61%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Jackman – Jones10:27
xG 0.43–0.18 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Ellis – Jones2:02
xG 0.02–0.14 (13%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Read – Couturier14:06
xG 0.53–0.18 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- McDonald – Cousins – Laughton5:59
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Giroux – Schenn – Raffl13:54
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – Voracek – Bellemare12:27
xG 0.24–0.84 (22%)attempts 9–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Medvedev14:07
xG 0.50–0.09 (85%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Gudas19:36
xG 0.91–0.76 (55%)attempts 22–15goals 1–0
- Schenn – Del Zotto2:00
xG 0.02–0.04 (31%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).