Fri, Nov 27, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Winnipeg Jets 3, Minnesota Wild 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 011 | 16 | 212 | 329 |
| MIN | 03 | 07 | 15 | 115 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:26WPGMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 2:24WPGDustin ByfuglienGWGAssists: Adam Lowry, Alexander Burmistrov · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 9:09MINRyan CarterAssists: Chris Porter, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 17:00WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Chris Thorburn · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:14WPGAnthony Peluso: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:14MINKurtis Gabriel: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:27MINMathew Dumba: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 8:27WPGMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:16MINRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:16WPGMark Stuart: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:16WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:29MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:45MINJason Zucker: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:46MINMikael Granlund: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Perreault – Scheifele10:59
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little13:17
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Ehlers11:07
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Peluso – Lowry – Copp5:42
xG 0.02–0.35 (6%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Myers17:26
xG 0.64–0.15 (81%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba5:25
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 2–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien2:49
xG 0.08–0.06 (55%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Carter – Gabriel3:19
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Zucker3:33
xG 0.05–0.02 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Vanek – Haula – Coyle3:54
xG 0.01–0.05 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund5:02
xG 0.10–0.18 (35%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Suter – Spurgeon17:31
xG 0.39–0.41 (49%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Brodin – Folin3:17
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba2:58
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).