Fri, Nov 27, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Anaheim Ducks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 09 | 014 | 27 | 12 | 332 |
| ANA | 18 | 18 | 09 | 00 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Carl Hagelin, Cam Fowler · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 7:34ANAChris StewartAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 18:19CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 19:33CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Brent Seabrook, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 1:53CHIArtem AnisimovGWGAssists: Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:09ANAPatrick Maroon: Interference2 min
- P1 12:24ANASami Vatanen: Holding2 min
- P1 18:35CHIJonathan Toews: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:35ANARyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:10ANAClayton Stoner: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:28CHIAndrew Shaw: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:52CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Holding2 min
- P3 4:54CHIAndrew Shaw: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:53ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Kruger – Dano5:26
xG 0.71–0.26 (73%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Panarin2:33
xG 0.03–0.04 (45%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin10:35
xG 0.76–0.78 (49%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Desjardins – Mashinter – Teravainen5:53
xG 0.04–0.17 (20%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson12:11
xG 0.77–0.21 (79%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – van Riemsdyk3:33
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Daley13:33
xG 0.72–0.75 (49%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Silfverberg – Ritchie10:16
xG 0.30–0.15 (66%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Cogliano – Hagelin10:19
xG 0.74–0.61 (55%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Santorelli – Stewart – Maroon4:32
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell8:59
xG 0.37–0.66 (36%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Vatanen8:43
xG 0.41–0.11 (79%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm15:09
xG 0.63–0.55 (53%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Lindholm2:42
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).