Fri, Nov 27, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
Montréal Canadiens 3, New Jersey Devils 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 05 | 19 | 18 | 05 | 2 | 327 |
| NJD | 09 | 213 | 04 | 01 | 1 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:09NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: John Moore, Lee Stempniak · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 9:06NJDLee StempniakPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–2
- P2 15:17MTLSven AndrighettoAssists: Lars Eller · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 11:14MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Max Pacioretty, Andrei Markov · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MTL Alex Galchenyuk scored
- 2. NJD Michael Cammalleri stopped
- 3. MTL David Desharnais stopped
- 4. NJD Jacob Josefson scored
- 5. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
- 6. NJD Lee Stempniak stopped
- 7. MTL Lars Eller stopped
- 8. NJD Adam Henrique stopped
- 9. MTL Sven Andrighetto scored
- 10. NJD Patrik Elias stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:10NJDLee Stempniak: Interference2 min
- P1 11:44MTLDevante Smith-Pelly: Interference2 min
- P2 2:06NJDEric Gelinas: Interference2 min
- P2 8:15MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:28MTLGreg Pateryn: Holding2 min
- P3 7:53NJDJacob Josefson: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:24MTLSven Andrighetto: Holding2 min
- OT 3:24NJDEric Gelinas: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Flynn won the faceoff against Gionta
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Galchenyuk3:05
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Smith-Pelly8:30
xG 0.39–0.16 (72%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Eller – Galchenyuk – Andrighetto7:15
xG 0.08–0.03 (77%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise12:46
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban16:58
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Pateryn12:09
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Petry – Beaulieu16:18
xG 0.20–0.93 (18%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Tootoo – Josefson10:45
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Stempniak – Henrique13:59
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Kennedy – Gionta – Farnham6:45
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Zajac – Palmieri – Kalinin12:23
xG 0.02–0.39 (4%)attempts 1–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Moore – Severson11:10
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Gelinas – Merrill6:56
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Moore – Merrill3:52
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).