Fri, Nov 27, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Edmonton Oilers 3, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 04 | 211 | 19 | 00 | 324 |
| DET | 09 | 316 | 06 | 11 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:11DETGustav NyquistAssists: Mike Green, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–1
- P2 12:07DETTomas TatarAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Jonathan Ericsson · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 15:17EDMIiro PakarinenAssists: Anton Lander, Teddy Purcell · Snap, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 17:44EDMAndrej SekeraPPAssists: Mark Letestu, Benoit Pouliot · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 19:24DETDylan LarkinAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 8:45EDMIiro PakarinenUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 0:26DETNiklas KronwallGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:00EDMMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:35DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:12EDMJordan Eberle: Holding2 min
- P2 16:46DETLuke Glendening: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hendricks won the faceoff against Sheahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Eberle – Lander – Pakarinen2:42
xG 0.02–0.06 (23%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Purcell – Hall – Draisaitl14:08
xG 0.80–0.87 (48%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Letestu12:21
xG 0.42–0.87 (33%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins13:39
xG 0.48–0.96 (33%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Nurse17:15
xG 0.83–0.47 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Gryba – Davidson6:45
xG 0.48–0.30 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Gryba – Klefbom2:25
xG 0.03–0.07 (28%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Tatar – Sheahan10:51
xG 1.08–0.56 (66%)attempts 12–6goals 2–1
- Richards – Datsyuk – Pulkkinen10:01
xG 0.53–0.19 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin11:43
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Miller – Helm – Glendening6:39
xG 0.35–0.60 (37%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – DeKeyser3:01
xG 0.98–0.02 (98%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Kronwall – Green15:50
xG 0.81–0.51 (61%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson2:07
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).