Fri, Nov 27, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Islanders 2, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 06 | 29 | 01 | 4 | 225 |
| FLA | 111 | 17 | 05 | 04 | 5 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:38FLABrandon PirriAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Erik Gudbranson · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 4:42FLAJussi JokinenAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
- P3 5:36NYIRyan StromeAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Marek Zidlicky · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 8:39NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Frans Nielsen, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. FLA Brandon Pirri scored
- 2. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 3. FLA Vincent Trocheck scored
- 4. NYI Kyle Okposo scored
- 5. FLA Nick Bjugstad scored
- 6. NYI John Tavares scored
- 7. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau scored
- 8. NYI Josh Bailey scored
- 9. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
- 10. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
Penalties (6)
- P2 6:19NYIMikhail Grabovski: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:25NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:25NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:25FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:25FLADerek MacKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:35FLAConnor Brickley: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:29
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Strome11:47
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee12:13
xG 0.43–0.56 (43%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Okposo – Tavares – Nelson15:37
xG 0.34–0.48 (42%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – de Haan20:40
xG 0.83–0.57 (60%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Strait11:20
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Leddy19:23
xG 0.30–0.67 (31%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Bjugstad – Huberdeau13:56
xG 0.71–0.35 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Trocheck – Shaw9:06
xG 0.55–0.20 (73%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Brickley – Howden9:12
xG 0.10–0.23 (30%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Jagr – Pirri – Barkov11:02
xG 0.15–0.50 (23%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Ekblad18:13
xG 0.73–0.36 (67%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson17:17
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Petrovic16:03
xG 0.31–0.49 (38%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).