Fri, Nov 27, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vancouver Canucks 2, Dallas Stars 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 014 | 17 | 113 | 02 | 0 | 236 |
| DAL | 18 | 16 | 05 | 06 | 1 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:27DALJamie BennPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 3:10VANDaniel SedinAssists: Jannik Hansen · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 11:52DALJason SpezzaPPAssists: John Klingberg, Patrick Sharp · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 15:50VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DAL Tyler Seguin scored
- 2. VAN Alexandre Burrows stopped
- 3. DAL Jason Spezza stopped
- 4. VAN Radim Vrbata stopped
- 5. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 6. VAN Chris Higgins stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:07DALAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min
- P1 6:22DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:22DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:10VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:34VANLuca Sbisa: Interference2 min
- P2 11:25VANSven Baertschi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:54DALColton Sceviour: Interference2 min
- P3 6:36DALAlex Goligoski: Delaying game2 min
- P3 7:08VANAlexandre Burrows: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:20DALAles Hemsky: Interference2 min
- P3 14:55DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 2:31VANJannik Hansen: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Hansen9:16
xG 0.52–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Higgins – McCann7:04
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Prust – Cracknell – Dorsett10:24
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Burrows – Baertschi – Horvat6:00
xG 0.16–0.33 (33%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev14:09
xG 0.78–0.16 (83%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Bartkowski14:28
xG 0.47–0.39 (55%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Weber10:48
xG 0.56–0.55 (50%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Eaves – Janmark7:01
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Fiddler – Sceviour6:30
xG 0.07–0.27 (21%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Nichushkin8:52
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Sharp – Benn – Seguin10:51
xG 0.15–0.74 (17%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Benn – Jokipakka9:30
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Oduya – Demers13:36
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg11:47
xG 0.23–0.55 (30%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).