Sat, Nov 28, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 3, New York Rangers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 04 | 118 | 212 | 334 |
| NYR | 010 | 07 | 07 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:24PHIWayne SimmondsGWGAssists: Matt Read, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P3 3:06PHISean CouturierAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–0
- P3 19:10PHIWayne SimmondsENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.44 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:58NYRDylan McIlrath: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:58PHILuke Schenn: Instigator2 min
- P1 10:58PHILuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:58PHILuke Schenn: Misconduct10 min
- P1 18:57PHIRadko Gudas: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:46NYRDylan McIlrath: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:43NYRJarret Stoll: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Lindberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Read – Couturier9:42
xG 1.48–0.17 (90%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- VandeVelde – Voracek – Bellemare9:46
xG 0.34–0.11 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- McDonald – Cousins – Laughton6:32
xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Schenn – Raffl9:00
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Medvedev8:13
xG 0.94–0.12 (89%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Gudas – Medvedev7:27
xG 0.65–0.16 (80%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Schenn – Del Zotto4:12
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Stoll – Moore – Stalberg12:32
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Kreider – Hayes – Etem6:42
xG 0.05–0.04 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Nash – Kreider – Hayes2:37
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello7:36
xG 0.16–0.53 (23%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Staal7:15
xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Yandle – McIlrath9:16
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Klein – McDonagh4:18
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).