Sat, Nov 28, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Edmonton Oilers 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 213 | 09 | 011 | 03 | 2 | 336 |
| PIT | 014 | 211 | 011 | 05 | 0 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:02EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Taylor Hall, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P1 7:30EDMLauri KorpikoskiPPAssists: Andrej Sekera, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 0:48PITEvgeni MalkinUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 3:29PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. EDM Matt Hendricks scored
- 2. PIT David Perron stopped
- 3. EDM Jordan Eberle scored
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:25PITRob Scuderi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:29EDMBenoit Pouliot: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:23EDMMark Fayne: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:52PITAdam Clendening: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:36EDMTaylor Hall: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:40EDMJustin Schultz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:56PITKris Letang: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 7:28PITPascal Dupuis: Interference2 min
- OT 2:45PITSidney Crosby: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Hall – Draisaitl13:19
xG 0.98–0.48 (67%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Korpikoski – Letestu – Pakarinen3:54
xG 0.12–0.04 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Letestu – Eberle6:13
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins4:56
xG 0.04–0.10 (28%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Davidson14:45
xG 0.46–0.57 (44%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Fayne – Klefbom15:15
xG 0.27–0.78 (26%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Sekera – Nurse16:37
xG 0.30–0.86 (26%)attempts 8–24goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Bonino – Bennett12:03
xG 0.52–0.22 (71%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Plotnikov7:12
xG 0.24–0.09 (74%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Crosby – Hornqvist10:56
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Perron14:08
xG 1.04–1.12 (48%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Letang16:24
xG 1.46–0.10 (94%)attempts 30–6goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin15:04
xG 0.71–0.30 (71%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Letang – Lovejoy2:17
xG 0.16–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).