Sat, Nov 28, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 3, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 011 | 211 | 16 | 328 |
| COL | 211 | 19 | 25 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:35COLBlake ComeauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 11:01COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Matt Duchene, Francois Beauchemin · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 5:55COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 9:05WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Jacob Trouba, Adam Lowry · Slap, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 13:37WPGBlake WheelerSHAssists: Alexander Burmistrov · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 2:48COLChris WagnerGWGAssists: Jack Skille, Andreas Martinsen · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 10:54WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 19:43COLMatt DucheneENAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P2 6:09COLFrancois Beauchemin: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:33WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:33COLJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:46WPGAnthony Peluso: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:40WPGToby Enstrom: Holding2 min
- P3 6:58COLNick Holden: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:14WPGJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Burmistrov – Ehlers9:53
xG 0.39–0.11 (79%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Stafford – Perreault – Scheifele12:46
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:52
xG 0.52–0.42 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
- Peluso – Lowry – Copp4:16
xG 0.06–0.08 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba13:15
xG 0.82–0.60 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Byfuglien – Pardy7:06
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 8–4goals 0–2
- Byfuglien – Trouba8:12
xG 0.37–0.22 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Agozzino – Grigorenko3:34
xG 0.18–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Duchene – Landeskog – MacKinnon16:59
xG 0.80–0.75 (52%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Skille – Agozzino – Wagner4:14
xG 0.09–0.17 (34%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – Grigorenko – Martinsen5:52
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Johnson16:50
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Holden – Barrie16:47
xG 0.83–0.90 (48%)attempts 17–18goals 1–1
- Redmond – Gormley11:17
xG 0.07–0.42 (15%)attempts 3–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).