Mon, Nov 30, 2015·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Colorado Avalanche 3, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 110 | 14 | 114 | 328 |
| NYI | 17 | 114 | 37 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:20COLBlake ComeauAssists: Carl Soderberg · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 19:58NYIKyle OkposoPPAssists: Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 6:31NYIMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Ryan Strome, Nikolay Kulemin · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 7:12COLJarome IginlaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 1:52NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Thomas Hickey, Marek Zidlicky · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 8:16NYICasey CizikasGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 16:26COLNick HoldenAssists: Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 19:12NYIRyan StromeENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.59 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:40NYIJosh Bailey: Interference2 min
- P1 19:04COLCody McLeod: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:46COLGabriel Landeskog: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:03NYIMikhail Grabovski: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:40COLCarl Soderberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:41NYIKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – McLeod9:55
xG 0.65–0.27 (70%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Duchene – Landeskog – MacKinnon12:37
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Iginla – Grigorenko – Martinsen8:53
xG 0.34–0.36 (48%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Skille – Agozzino – Wagner8:42
xG 0.20–0.49 (29%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie15:25
xG 0.80–0.59 (58%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Redmond – Gormley9:56
xG 0.32–0.54 (37%)attempts 12–8goals 0–3
- Beauchemin – Johnson15:38
xG 0.49–0.82 (38%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:48
xG 1.03–0.28 (79%)attempts 11–5goals 2–1
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Strome7:52
xG 0.36–0.08 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee9:33
xG 0.28–0.41 (41%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Okposo – Tavares – Nelson11:26
xG 0.17–0.63 (22%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Hickey9:08
xG 0.68–0.34 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Boychuk – de Haan13:44
xG 0.58–0.28 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Leddy18:23
xG 0.72–0.71 (51%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).