Mon, Nov 30, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 3, New York Rangers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 010 | 214 | 112 | 336 |
| NYR | 26 | 28 | 08 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09NYRMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 18:23NYROscar LindbergPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 1:40CARJordan StaalAssists: Andrej Nestrasil, Joakim Nordstrom · Snap, 0.31 xG1–2
- P2 2:24NYRChris KreiderAssists: Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 15:49NYRDerick BrassardGWGAssists: Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.09 xG1–4
- P2 17:59CARVictor RaskAssists: Elias Lindholm, Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 8:23CARChris TerryAssists: Jeff Skinner, Ron Hainsey · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:04CARBrett Pesce: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:54NYRDan Boyle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:04NYROscar Lindberg: Interference2 min
- P1 12:44CAREric Staal: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:11CARJohn-Michael Liles: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:25CARKris Versteeg: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:43NYRKevin Hayes: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:11CARJohn-Michael Liles: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:11NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against Stoll
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Rask – Lindholm13:37
xG 0.95–0.34 (73%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom10:01
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- McClement – Terry – Malone5:37
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Nash – Skinner10:54
xG 0.42–0.51 (45%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Hanifin12:53
xG 1.40–0.50 (74%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Liles – Pesce15:14
xG 0.70–0.21 (77%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Faulk13:58
xG 0.79–0.56 (58%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Zuccarello11:44
xG 0.47–0.26 (65%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Hayes – Miller6:16
xG 0.23–0.68 (25%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Stoll – Moore – Etem11:35
xG 0.18–0.76 (19%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
- Kreider – Lindberg – Fast7:55
xG 0.18–0.97 (15%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – McDonagh3:33
xG 0.37–0.02 (96%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Boyle – Staal9:27
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Boyle – McDonagh3:01
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).