Tue, Dec 1, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Florida Panthers 3, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 04 | 311 | 08 | 323 |
| STL | 03 | 110 | 017 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:18FLABrandon PirriAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Willie Mitchell · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 12:31FLADerek MacKenzieGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 12:52STLDavid BackesAssists: Robby Fabbri, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 16:41FLADerek MacKenzieUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:54STLVladimir Tarasenko: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:55FLABrandon Pirri: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:52FLADave Bolland: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:16FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Pirri – Barkov13:47
xG 0.36–0.13 (74%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Howden3:54
xG 0.21–0.05 (79%)attempts 3–3goals 2–0
- MacKenzie – Jokinen – Howden2:33
xG 0.02–0.05 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Trocheck – Huberdeau14:41
xG 0.31–0.45 (41%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Ekblad14:37
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Campbell16:28
xG 0.42–0.40 (51%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Olsen – Gudbranson15:49
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 7–15goals 2–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Brouwer4:17
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Upshall – Backes – Fabbri6:04
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Stastny – Paajarvi – Tarasenko3:39
xG 0.16–0.18 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Lehtera – Paajarvi6:02
xG 0.08–0.10 (45%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Parayko9:37
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk3:51
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Parayko2:25
xG 0.07–0.02 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).