Wed, Dec 2, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Boston Bruins 2, Edmonton Oilers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 08 | 115 | 113 | 04 | 0 | 240 |
| EDM | 010 | 113 | 110 | 03 | 1 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:23EDMMark LetestuSHAssists: Matt Hendricks, Andrej Sekera · Deflected, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 18:27BOSTorey KrugAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Adam McQuaid · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 9:22EDMMatt HendricksAssists: Mark Letestu, Lauri Korpikoski · Deflected, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 16:39BOSZdeno CharaAssists: David Krejci, Loui Eriksson · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. EDM Matt Hendricks stopped
- 2. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
- 3. EDM Jordan Eberle scored
- 4. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
- 5. EDM Mark Letestu stopped
- 6. BOS David Krejci stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:24BOSPatrice Bergeron: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:47EDMEric Gryba: Interference2 min
- P2 12:13BOSLoui Eriksson: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:35BOSJimmy Hayes: Interference2 min
- P3 5:40EDMEric Gryba: Elbowing2 min
- P3 11:10BOSMatt Beleskey: Hooking2 min
- OT 3:54BOSMatt Beleskey: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Vatrano9:16
xG 0.35–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hayes – Ferraro – Spooner8:59
xG 0.60–0.38 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Krejci – Beleskey13:24
xG 0.62–0.45 (58%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Connolly – Kemppainen4:38
xG 0.49–0.41 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Trotman16:06
xG 1.15–0.87 (57%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug13:44
xG 0.70–0.57 (55%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Miller10:06
xG 0.23–0.32 (41%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Draisaitl13:22
xG 0.80–0.49 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Gazdic – Lander – Khaira4:16
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Purcell – Pakarinen – Nugent-Hopkins9:11
xG 0.31–0.51 (38%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Letestu10:11
xG 0.40–0.81 (33%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Gryba – Nurse2:15
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Sekera – Nurse11:23
xG 0.52–0.78 (40%)attempts 5–13goals 1–2
- Fayne – Klefbom16:38
xG 0.40–0.69 (36%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).