Thu, Dec 3, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 5, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 19 | 311 | 17 | 527 |
| CAR | 08 | 114 | 09 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:17NJDMichael CammalleriAssists: Tyler Kennedy · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 11:03NJDAdam HenriquePPGWGAssists: Lee Stempniak, John Moore · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 13:10NJDStephen GiontaAssists: Brian O'Neill, Tyler Kennedy · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 17:36CARBrad MaloneAssists: Jay McClement · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 18:57NJDJacob JosefsonAssists: Michael Cammalleri · Snap, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 12:47NJDMichael CammalleriAssists: Patrik Elias, John Moore · Snap, 0.06 xG5–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:27CARVictor Rask: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:47NJDStefan Matteau: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:04CARJeff Skinner: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 14:25NJDAdam Larsson: Holding2 min
- P2 19:19CARBrad Malone: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:19NJDJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:55NJDPatrik Elias: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:55CARRon Hainsey: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:44CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:20CARJustin Faulk: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:20CARJustin Faulk: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:20NJDStefan Matteau: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:20NJDStefan Matteau: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Palmieri – Josefson2:19
xG 0.37–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Gionta – O'Neill3:14
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Gionta – O'Neill3:04
xG 0.10–0.03 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Gionta – Matteau4:26
xG 0.03–0.11 (20%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson14:38
xG 0.44–0.30 (59%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Gelinas – Merrill13:48
xG 0.51–0.47 (52%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Moore – Severson10:46
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Rask – Lindholm11:56
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 22–5goals 0–1
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom7:11
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Versteeg – Staal – Nordstrom4:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Terry – Nash – Skinner2:09
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Hanifin5:32
xG 0.62–0.17 (78%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Murphy5:43
xG 0.08–0.11 (44%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Faulk8:39
xG 0.08–0.21 (28%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).