Thu, Dec 3, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 3, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 16 | 17 | 16 | 319 |
| MTL | 010 | 117 | 18 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:26WSHTom WilsonAssists: Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 12:08MTLLars EllerAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 19:16WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 2:30MTLBrian FlynnSHAssists: Paul Byron, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 8:17WSHT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Karl Alzner, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:37WSHMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P2 10:06WSHTaylor Chorney: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:25MTLAlexei Emelin: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:00MTLMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:07WSHJohn Carlson: Holding2 min
- P3 18:07MTLDale Weise: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Johansson – Kuznetsov12:22
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Laich – Latta – Wilson3:05
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom13:48
xG 0.29–0.64 (31%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Burakovsky7:52
xG 0.13–0.63 (17%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Orlov11:11
xG 0.23–0.05 (83%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner17:46
xG 0.30–0.84 (26%)attempts 12–24goals 2–0
- Carlson – Schmidt15:50
xG 0.66–1.32 (33%)attempts 14–23goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Weise14:39
xG 0.94–0.53 (64%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Eller – Galchenyuk – Andrighetto9:41
xG 0.51–0.15 (78%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Fleischmann – Byron13:09
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Thomas – Smith-Pelly – Flynn5:07
xG 0.03–0.30 (8%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Beaulieu12:09
xG 0.96–0.40 (71%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban16:16
xG 0.62–0.43 (59%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Emelin13:54
xG 0.45–0.28 (61%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).