Thu, Dec 3, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 011 | 216 | 111 | 00 | 338 |
| OTT | 28 | 06 | 112 | 11 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Kyle Turris, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 7:42OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 3:27CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Duncan Keith, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 16:52CHIArtemi PanarinAssists: Patrick Kane, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 3:54OTTMark StonePPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–3
- P3 12:34CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 0:30OTTMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:16CHIMarian Hossa: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:48CHIAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:16OTTMarc Methot: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 2:20OTTJared Cowen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:13CHIBrandon Mashinter: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:13OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:34CHITeuvo Teravainen: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 6:30OTTMike Hoffman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Teravainen11:50
xG 0.48–0.05 (90%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin13:51
xG 0.72–0.60 (55%)attempts 22–7goals 2–1
- Mashinter – Dano – Kero4:45
xG 0.23–0.15 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Kruger – Garbutt – Shaw4:05
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson18:44
xG 0.77–0.53 (59%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook2:14
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Seabrook – van Riemsdyk15:05
xG 0.43–0.42 (50%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Stone – Pageau – Lazar12:11
xG 0.41–0.44 (48%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Smith – Chiasson – Prince7:26
xG 0.37–0.50 (43%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Hoffman16:56
xG 0.65–0.79 (45%)attempts 9–23goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson15:02
xG 0.97–0.36 (73%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Cowen – Wideman2:12
xG 0.02–0.02 (55%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman2:54
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).