Thu, Dec 3, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Florida Panthers 2, Nashville Predators 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 16 | 03 | 216 |
| NSH | 05 | 117 | 011 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:59FLAQuinton HowdenAssists: Connor Brickley, Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 11:24FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Steven Kampfer · Snap, 0.28 xG2–0
- P2 17:46NSHRoman JosiAssists: Craig Smith, Colin Wilson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:29FLAJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:46NSHShea Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 4:12FLABrandon Pirri: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:20FLAQuinton Howden: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:20NSHJames Neal: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Jagr – Pirri – Barkov11:12
xG 0.26–0.28 (49%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Smith – Pirri – Trocheck2:22
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Jokinen – Shaw8:13
xG 0.08–0.15 (34%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Bolland – Brickley – Howden7:48
xG 0.06–0.20 (23%)attempts 2–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Mitchell – Campbell15:09
xG 0.25–0.46 (35%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
- Olsen – Gudbranson13:43
xG 0.25–0.47 (34%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Ekblad15:46
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 6–22goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Smith – Forsberg10:06
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Forsberg2:18
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Wilson – Hodgson – Sissons4:51
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Sissons – Arvidsson3:46
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi18:53
xG 0.54–0.31 (63%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm18:30
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Jackman – Jones12:02
xG 0.30–0.32 (49%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).