Thu, Dec 3, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 010 | 010 | 028 |
| MIN | 012 | 15 | 011 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:24MINMathew DumbaPPGWGAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Charlie Coyle · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:00TORJake Gardiner: Interference2 min
- P2 2:58MINDevan Dubnyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:33TORBrad Boyes: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 11:12MINMarco Scandella: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 14:52TORNazem Kadri: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Matthias – Bozak13:04
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Winnik – Grabner – Spaling7:41
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Komarov – van Riemsdyk – Kadri11:10
xG 0.63–0.54 (54%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Boyes – Holland – Froese8:42
xG 0.09–0.23 (27%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner15:45
xG 0.62–0.19 (77%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Polak – Marincin9:22
xG 0.40–0.08 (83%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Rielly15:36
xG 0.58–0.73 (44%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Koivu – Zucker – Niederreiter10:45
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Porter – Carter – Haula7:30
xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Vanek – Coyle – Fontaine9:41
xG 0.30–0.42 (41%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund13:28
xG 0.45–0.83 (35%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba4:12
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Scandella – Prosser4:05
xG 0.27–0.11 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon2:07
xG 0.02–0.03 (35%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).