Fri, Dec 4, 2015·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
St. Louis Blues 1, New York Islanders 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 07 | 09 | 05 | 0 | 132 |
| NYI | 06 | 09 | 17 | 03 | 2 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:33STLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 6:39NYIMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Ryan Strome, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 2. STL Kevin Shattenkirk stopped
- 3. NYI Kyle Okposo scored
- 4. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:07NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:22STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min
- P1 8:04NYIThomas Hickey: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:21STLScott Gomez: Elbowing2 min
- P1 9:21NYICasey Cizikas: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:18STLDavid Backes: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Tarasenko8:32
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Stastny – Lehtera – Tarasenko3:53
xG 0.36–0.11 (78%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Steen – Backes – Brouwer4:24
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gomez – Jaskin – Fabbri7:37
xG 0.18–0.11 (61%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Gunnarsson3:44
xG 0.37–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Parayko13:42
xG 0.54–0.34 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo17:00
xG 0.71–0.76 (48%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:45
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee13:05
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Okposo – Tavares – Nelson11:27
xG 0.44–0.70 (39%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Strome11:39
xG 0.22–0.77 (22%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Hickey11:13
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Leddy19:08
xG 0.78–0.77 (50%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Boychuk – de Haan19:32
xG 0.79–1.20 (40%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).