Fri, Dec 4, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Boston Bruins 4, Calgary Flames 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 115 | 27 | 111 | 05 | 438 |
| CGY | 29 | 112 | 114 | 12 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:33CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: David Jones · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 15:55CGYMark GiordanoAssists: TJ Brodie, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 17:19BOSMatt BeleskeyAssists: Zdeno Chara, Loui Eriksson · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 1:36BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Brett Connolly, Zach Trotman · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 1:56CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Jiri Hudler, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P2 2:22BOSZdeno CharaAssists: Matt Beleskey, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 18:54BOSBrad MarchandUnassisted · Backhand, 0.27 xG4–3
- P3 19:58CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Sean Monahan, Joe Colborne · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–4
- OT 3:20CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:41BOSZach Trotman: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:32BOSColin Miller: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:42CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:42BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:02BOSDavid Krejci: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:50CGYMarkus Granlund: Holding2 min
- P3 17:43BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:54CGYDougie Hamilton: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Connolly10:57
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Beleskey12:55
xG 0.75–0.45 (63%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Hayes – Spooner – Vatrano3:22
xG 0.03–0.27 (10%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hayes – Vatrano – Kemppainen6:54
xG 0.14–0.78 (15%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrotman – Krug2:52
xG 0.33–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug5:11
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug7:04
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Granlund – Bennett4:55
xG 0.46–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Hudler – Granlund – Bennett2:15
xG 0.27–0.03 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Gaudreau – Monahan2:03
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan9:46
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Smid9:31
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Wideman – Hamilton15:05
xG 1.14–0.89 (56%)attempts 27–17goals 1–1
- Giordano – Brodie19:26
xG 0.29–0.77 (27%)attempts 14–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).