Sat, Dec 5, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Washington Capitals 1, Winnipeg Jets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 06 | 114 | 012 | 06 | 138 |
| WPG | 117 | 08 | 09 | 12 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:53WPGAndrew LaddPPAssists: Bryan Little, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 14:25WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: John Carlson, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- OT 4:40WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Jacob Trouba, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:16WSHTaylor Chorney: Interference2 min
- P1 12:33WSHStanislav Galiev: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:57WSHJason Chimera: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:39WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:57WSHMichael Latta: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 18:57WPGJacob Trouba: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:57WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:57WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:57WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:41WPGChris Thorburn: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:58WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:13WPGAnthony Peluso: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:16WPGChris Thorburn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Beagle – Wilson8:32
xG 0.51–0.12 (82%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom13:50
xG 0.72–0.41 (64%)attempts 24–9goals 0–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky11:41
xG 0.37–0.21 (63%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Laich – Latta – Galiev4:15
xG 0.03–0.11 (23%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner12:16
xG 0.73–0.51 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Carlson – Schmidt14:27
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 22–13goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Schmidt2:40
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Burmistrov – Ehlers8:19
xG 0.24–0.09 (74%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Stafford – Perreault – Scheifele12:01
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little12:00
xG 0.38–0.66 (37%)attempts 7–21goals 0–0
- Peluso – Lowry – Copp5:38
xG 0.09–0.48 (15%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Myers16:40
xG 0.92–0.86 (52%)attempts 12–24goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot14:07
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba10:48
xG 0.17–0.54 (24%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).