Sat, Dec 5, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 03 | 28 | 19 | 320 |
| LAK | 010 | 418 | 19 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:26LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Jake Muzzin, Jeff Carter · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 9:53LAKChristian EhrhoffAssists: Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 10:57LAKMilan LucicAssists: Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 11:20PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Brian Dumoulin · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 12:18LAKJake MuzzinGWGAssists: Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P2 18:01PITOlli MaattaAssists: Chris Kunitz, Beau Bennett · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 2:39PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Chris Kunitz · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 18:45LAKMilan LucicENAssists: Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.78 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:32LAKNicholas Shore: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:53PITRob Scuderi: Holding2 min
- P2 2:22PITRob Scuderi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 5:31LAKKyle Clifford: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:45PITNick Bonino: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:33PITBen Lovejoy: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Cullen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Bennett5:05
xG 0.39–0.34 (54%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Plotnikov8:44
xG 0.22–0.24 (47%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Bonino – Bennett5:31
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Perron12:21
xG 0.36–0.47 (44%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Dumoulin17:16
xG 0.89–0.69 (56%)attempts 16–19goals 2–1
- Scuderi – Warsofsky12:03
xG 0.22–0.37 (38%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Cole – Maatta16:53
xG 0.20–1.02 (17%)attempts 7–19goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Andreoff – Shore11:40
xG 0.74–0.06 (93%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Lucic – Toffoli10:31
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 14–7goals 1–2
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Pearson11:58
xG 0.58–0.55 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Clifford – Nolan – Weal6:41
xG 0.05–0.22 (19%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez14:43
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 18–11goals 2–2
- Doughty – McNabb19:39
xG 0.70–0.64 (52%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Muzzin – Doughty2:12
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).