Sat, Dec 5, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Islanders 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 014 | 19 | 01 | 231 |
| OTT | 09 | 09 | 27 | 14 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:49NYIMatt MartinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P3 7:02NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–0
- P3 8:58OTTMark StoneAssists: Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 19:23OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 3:34OTTErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:02NYICal Clutterbuck: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:30NYIJohnny Boychuk: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:15OTTMika Zibanejad: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:02NYIMatt Martin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Tavares – Nelson14:09
xG 0.67–0.12 (85%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Strome11:22
xG 0.82–0.50 (62%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:10
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee11:50
xG 0.55–0.58 (49%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Leddy20:52
xG 1.19–0.71 (63%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Boychuk – de Haan14:45
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Hickey11:37
xG 0.33–0.48 (41%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestStone – Prince – Zibanejad12:30
xG 0.75–0.68 (52%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Pageau – Lazar11:31
xG 0.06–0.14 (30%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Dziurzynski7:56
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Ryan – Turris – Hoffman12:36
xG 0.49–0.95 (34%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Cowen2:01
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Cowen – Ceci13:17
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 7–21goals 0–0
- Methot – Ceci2:03
xG 0.01–0.13 (7%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).