Sun, Dec 6, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
Florida Panthers 2, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 07 | 212 | 017 | 236 |
| NJD | 211 | 14 | 13 | 418 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26NJDLee StempniakAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Adam Henrique · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 12:55NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 0:45FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 3:43NJDAdam HenriqueGWGAssists: Adam Larsson · Wrap-around, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 13:07FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 6:44NJDMichael CammalleriAssists: Damon Severson, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:17FLAVincent Trocheck: Interference2 min
- P1 14:37NJDJordin Tootoo: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:12NJDDamon Severson: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:12FLABrandon Pirri: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:56FLADave Bolland: Embellishment2 min
- P2 2:56NJDEric Gelinas: Interference2 min
- P2 6:37FLAJussi Jokinen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:54NJDAdam Larsson: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:40FLAErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:40NJDKyle Palmieri: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:31NJDDavid Schlemko: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov8:36
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 1–0
- Jagr – Pirri – Barkov2:20
xG 0.06–0.01 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Jokinen – Shaw6:49
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Pirri – Trocheck5:01
xG 0.20–0.37 (36%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Ekblad2:32
xG 0.17–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Gudbranson13:10
xG 0.54–0.40 (57%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Kampfer – Ekblad12:42
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stempniak – Henrique10:09
xG 0.68–0.20 (77%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Elias – Palmieri – Josefson7:24
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Gionta – O'Neill4:10
xG 0.27–0.14 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Gionta – O'Neill4:29
xG 0.02–0.06 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Severson11:06
xG 0.97–0.38 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 3–0
- Schlemko – Gelinas11:25
xG 0.24–0.34 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson14:35
xG 0.12–0.51 (19%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).