Sun, Dec 6, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Buffalo Sabres 2, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 17 | 111 | 016 | 234 |
| EDM | 39 | 113 | 06 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:58BUFJack EichelAssists: Brian Gionta, Jamie McGinn · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 9:36EDMTeddy PurcellAssists: Taylor Hall, Leon Draisaitl · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 16:06EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P1 18:55EDMTaylor HallPPGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P2 13:22BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Zach Bogosian, Carlo Colaiacovo · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–3
- P2 17:43EDMLuke GazdicAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Anton Lander · Wrist, 0.48 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:03EDMMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:03BUFZemgus Girgensons: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:39BUFJosh Gorges: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:20EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:37EDMBrandon Davidson: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:30EDMEric Gryba: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:07EDMTaylor Hall: Boarding2 min
- P3 11:45BUFEvander Kane: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:45EDMTaylor Hall: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Gionta – McGinn – Eichel8:54
xG 0.29–0.26 (52%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Legwand – Foligno – Deslauriers6:48
xG 0.13–0.10 (55%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Moulson – Larsson – Girgensons5:30
xG 0.11–0.55 (17%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- O'Reilly – Kane – Reinhart10:58
xG 0.14–0.75 (16%)attempts 6–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Franson – McCabe11:36
xG 0.40–0.46 (47%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Gorges – Ristolainen16:46
xG 0.45–0.89 (33%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Bogosian13:49
xG 0.20–1.11 (15%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Hall – Draisaitl14:38
xG 0.87–0.23 (79%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira12:16
xG 0.73–0.29 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Gazdic – Lander – Pakarinen3:59
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Letestu7:29
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Klefbom13:44
xG 1.15–0.54 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Gryba – Davidson14:38
xG 0.65–0.12 (84%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Sekera – Nurse14:10
xG 0.62–0.37 (62%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).