Sun, Dec 6, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 06 | 111 | 08 | 125 |
| LAK | 18 | 211 | 09 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:24LAKAndy AndreoffAssists: Nicholas Shore, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 0:27TBLBrian BoyleAssists: Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 0:39LAKBrayden McNabbGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 3:47LAKMilan LucicAssists: Jeff Carter, Brayden McNabb · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:38LAKJake Muzzin: Interference2 min
- P1 18:26TBLJT Brown: Holding2 min
- P2 4:35LAKChristian Ehrhoff: Holding2 min
- P2 5:26LAKDustin Brown: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:53TBLJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:53LAKChristian Ehrhoff: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:57LAKJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:29LAKDrew Doughty: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:48TBLVictor Hedman: Elbowing2 min
- P3 15:56TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:37LAKNicholas Shore: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:53TBLValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Marchessault – Vermin6:39
xG 0.25–0.09 (74%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Johnson3:37
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Callahan – Brown9:29
xG 0.26–0.27 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Drouin5:09
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman13:20
xG 0.76–0.63 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Carle – Garrison15:47
xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
- Coburn – Sustr11:31
xG 0.43–0.61 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Lucic – Toffoli8:22
xG 0.75–0.24 (76%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Weal6:39
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Brown – Andreoff – Shore8:29
xG 0.10–0.14 (41%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Pearson10:55
xG 0.49–0.57 (46%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez10:47
xG 0.61–0.17 (78%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb16:55
xG 0.86–0.57 (60%)attempts 19–10goals 3–0
- Ehrhoff – McBain8:20
xG 0.11–0.25 (30%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).