Mon, Dec 7, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Nashville Predators 3, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 112 | 112 | 19 | 333 |
| BOS | 17 | 14 | 06 | 217 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:13BOSKevan MillerAssists: David Krejci, Matt Beleskey · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 19:35NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 10:53BOSLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Ryan Spooner, Patrice Bergeron · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 11:20NSHRoman JosiPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–2
- P3 15:04NSHViktor ArvidssonGWGAssists: Cody Hodgson, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 13:30BOSZach Trotman: Holding2 min
- P1 13:54NSHJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:49BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:49NSHFilip Forsberg: Interference2 min
- P1 18:41BOSZdeno Chara: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:04NSHRoman Josi: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:04BOSBrad Marchand: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:13NSHEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 6:13BOSTyler Randell: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:38NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:44NSHJames Neal: Embellishment2 min
- P2 11:08BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:44BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min
- P2 17:26BOSTyler Randell: Boarding2 min
- P3 3:34BOSTyler Randell: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:21BOSBrett Connolly: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Jarnkrok
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHodgson – Smith – Sissons4:20
xG 0.52–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Wilson – Arvidsson8:00
xG 0.64–0.42 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Forsberg9:09
xG 0.21–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Sissons – Arvidsson2:17
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Jones11:03
xG 0.82–0.12 (87%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi13:43
xG 0.81–0.23 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Ellis – Ekholm14:23
xG 0.26–0.35 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Krejci – Beleskey12:06
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Ferraro – Randell4:36
xG 0.04–0.08 (33%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Connolly7:44
xG 0.04–0.13 (24%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Spooner – Vatrano2:48
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chara – Trotman13:05
xG 0.05–0.22 (19%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Miller – Morrow11:28
xG 0.42–0.67 (39%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- McQuaid – Krug12:15
xG 0.25–0.82 (23%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).