Tue, Dec 8, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 29 | 15 | 011 | 01 | 1 | 426 |
| PHI | 115 | 117 | 113 | 01 | 0 | 346 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:55NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Anders Lee, Johnny Boychuk · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 9:12PHIPierre-Edouard BellemareSHAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 10:43NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Nick Leddy, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 1:14NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Josh Bailey, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 4:09PHIRyan WhiteAssists: R.J. Umberger, Scott Laughton · Snap, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 2:02PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Brayden Schenn, Brandon Manning · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 2. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 3. PHI Wayne Simmonds stopped
- 4. NYI Kyle Okposo scored
- 5. PHI Evgeny Medvedev stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:47PHIEvgeny Medvedev: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:11NYIJohn Tavares: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 12:56NYIMarek Zidlicky: Interference2 min
- OT 2:53PHIJakub Voracek: Interference2 min
- OT 2:53NYIMatt Martin: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Strome8:58
xG 0.65–0.64 (50%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas5:19
xG 0.11–0.43 (20%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee9:28
xG 0.48–0.82 (37%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
- Okposo – Tavares – Nelson14:08
xG 0.19–0.55 (26%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Hamonic2:52
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Leddy15:43
xG 1.02–1.00 (50%)attempts 20–22goals 1–2
- Boychuk – de Haan16:46
xG 0.38–0.81 (32%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVandeVelde – Voracek – Bellemare10:52
xG 1.68–0.55 (75%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier14:13
xG 0.55–0.16 (77%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Umberger – White – Laughton9:05
xG 0.56–0.35 (61%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Giroux – Schenn – Raffl11:17
xG 0.47–0.49 (49%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Del Zotto17:22
xG 1.86–0.28 (87%)attempts 24–16goals 1–1
- Schultz – Medvedev17:23
xG 0.91–0.26 (78%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Medvedev2:06
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).