Tue, Dec 8, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Detroit Red Wings 2, Washington Capitals 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 18 | 17 | 06 | 02 | 0 | 223 |
| WSH | 111 | 017 | 111 | 01 | 2 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:43WSHJustin WilliamsAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 15:40DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 3:16DETTomas JurcoAssists: Joakim Andersson, Luke Glendening · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 10:51WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WSH T.J. Oshie scored
- 2. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 3. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 4. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:30DETNiklas Kronwall: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:46DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:29DETMike Green: Holding2 min
- P3 10:23DETBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 2:35WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:41DETGustav Nyquist: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAndersson – Jurco – Glendening6:33
xG 0.19–0.04 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan10:03
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin14:13
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Richards – Datsyuk – Helm11:28
xG 0.07–0.40 (15%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kronwall – Green18:00
xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Ericsson – DeKeyser14:18
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Smith – Marchenko13:32
xG 0.17–0.36 (32%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Beagle – Wilson9:41
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom14:58
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov14:16
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Laich – Latta – Burakovsky4:50
xG 0.02–0.15 (12%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Schmidt19:19
xG 0.74–0.46 (62%)attempts 21–19goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner19:44
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Chorney – Orlov10:57
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 4–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).