Tue, Dec 8, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 4, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 16 | 310 | 423 |
| FLA | 111 | 18 | 08 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:49FLALogan ShawAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Jussi Jokinen · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 0:48OTTZack SmithPPAssists: Mark Stone, Kyle Turris · Slap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 13:58FLAReilly SmithAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Brandon Pirri · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 0:51OTTKyle TurrisPPAssists: Mark Stone, Bobby Ryan · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 14:23OTTMike HoffmanGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 17:29OTTJean-Gabriel PageauENAssists: Mark Stone · Slap, 0.61 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:07OTTAlex Chiasson: Holding2 min
- P1 19:21FLABrandon Pirri: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:40OTTJared Cowen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:35OTTZack Smith: Kneeing2 min
- P2 16:16FLAVincent Trocheck: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:26FLAAleksander Barkov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:33FLAErik Gudbranson: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:57OTTCody Ceci: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:12FLAJussi Jokinen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00FLAJussi Jokinen: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Stone – Zibanejad10:42
xG 0.30–0.15 (66%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Chiasson – Pageau2:16
xG 0.14–0.02 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Pageau – Lazar6:24
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Ryan – Turris – Hoffman8:29
xG 0.12–0.51 (18%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson13:10
xG 0.76–0.48 (62%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Cowen – Wideman8:04
xG 0.16–0.12 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci11:11
xG 0.09–0.58 (13%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov13:28
xG 0.76–0.56 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Pirri – Trocheck8:15
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Jokinen – Shaw8:56
xG 0.18–0.06 (76%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Bolland – Brickley – Howden6:51
xG 0.02–0.08 (24%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Gudbranson12:00
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Campbell10:30
xG 0.37–0.06 (85%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Kampfer – Ekblad15:01
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).