Tue, Dec 8, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 010 | 111 | 49 | 530 |
| DAL | 48 | 17 | 15 | 620 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:49DALPatrick EavesAssists: Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 7:15DALJamie BennAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 14:41DALJohnny OduyaAssists: Jamie Benn, Valeri Nichushkin · Slap, 0.20 xG0–3
- P1 18:44DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: John Klingberg, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 3:10CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Riley Nash, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P2 19:26DALValeri NichushkinAssists: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–5
- P3 2:21CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–5
- P3 3:34CARPhillip Di GiuseppeAssists: Noah Hanifin, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 8:46CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–5
- P3 13:17CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Andrej Nestrasil, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–5
- P3 19:41DALPatrick SharpPPGWGAssists: John Klingberg, Tyler Seguin · Slap, 0.03 xG5–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:06DALPatrick Eaves: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:27CARJay McClement: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:55DALJason Spezza: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:26CARJeff Skinner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:18DALTyler Seguin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 18:26CARVictor Rask: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Versteeg – Lindholm13:50
xG 1.10–0.40 (73%)attempts 24–12goals 0–1
- Skinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe11:50
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom11:54
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- McClement – Nash – Malone5:36
xG 0.18–0.26 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Hanifin13:16
xG 1.12–0.43 (72%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Faulk18:01
xG 0.95–0.48 (66%)attempts 26–10goals 0–2
- Liles – Pesce16:14
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Sharp – Roussel – Eakin2:45
xG 0.02–0.02 (59%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin14:39
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 8–17goals 3–0
- Spezza – Eaves – Janmark11:08
xG 0.15–0.41 (27%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Roussel8:32
xG 0.17–0.52 (25%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Nemeth – Oleksiak13:39
xG 0.02–0.19 (8%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg19:18
xG 0.60–1.05 (36%)attempts 16–21goals 2–0
- Oduya – Benn14:43
xG 0.49–0.99 (33%)attempts 10–19goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).