Tue, Dec 8, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 2, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 214 | 010 | 09 | 233 |
| CGY | 29 | 216 | 08 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:45CGYMarkus GranlundAssists: Jiri Hudler, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 4:31SJSChris TierneyAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Dainius Zubrus · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 8:07CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Dennis Wideman · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 11:02SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Logan Couture · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 2:27CGYMichael FrolikGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, Dougie Hamilton · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–3
- P2 8:59CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Mark Giordano, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:45SJSDainius Zubrus: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:52CGYMason Raymond: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:03SJSJoonas Donskoi: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:15SJSDainius Zubrus: Holding2 min
- P2 12:59SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:32SJSLogan Couture: Interference2 min
- P3 11:39CGYLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:39CGYLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:39SJSDainius Zubrus: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:01CGYDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
- P3 16:15SJSJoonas Donskoi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:34SJSJoe Pavelski: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Donskoi – Tierney5:42
xG 1.32–0.18 (88%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Marleau – Ward – Couture6:43
xG 0.39–0.04 (91%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ward – Couture – Donskoi2:15
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson8:37
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns16:54
xG 1.84–0.26 (87%)attempts 25–10goals 1–1
- Tennyson – Mueller8:12
xG 0.37–0.57 (40%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Braun – Dillon16:42
xG 0.36–0.57 (38%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Stajan – Colborne – Ferland11:17
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Hudler – Granlund – Bennett9:05
xG 0.17–0.44 (28%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Jones – Gaudreau – Monahan10:57
xG 0.12–0.47 (20%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Raymond – Frolik – Backlund6:13
xG 0.69–1.10 (39%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie15:44
xG 0.61–0.36 (63%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
- Engelland – Smid11:07
xG 0.28–0.46 (38%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Wideman – Hamilton15:04
xG 0.52–0.86 (38%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).