Thu, Dec 10, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Washington Capitals 1, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 010 | 14 | 121 |
| FLA | 19 | 110 | 27 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:51FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.00 xG0–1
- P2 9:16FLABrandon PirriPPGWGAssists: Brian Campbell, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 7:19FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Willie Mitchell · Snap, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 17:52WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 18:56FLALogan ShawENAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Slap, 0.70 xG1–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:24FLAJussi Jokinen: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:31WSHJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:29FLABrandon Pirri: Elbowing2 min
- P1 13:33WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 1:28WSHKarl Alzner: Holding2 min
- P2 7:24WSHAlex Ovechkin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:46FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:50FLADmitry Kulikov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:43WSHTom Wilson: Boarding5 min
- P3 5:43WSHTom Wilson: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 6:30FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:04FLAVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:04WSHAlex Ovechkin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:35FLAAl Montoya: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against MacKenzie
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Brown – Latta5:59
xG 0.15–0.08 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom6:46
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson3:38
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Beagle2:16
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carlson – Schmidt11:10
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Chorney – Orlov7:51
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner10:39
xG 0.05–0.30 (15%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov7:49
xG 0.27–0.00 (99%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Bolland – Brickley – Howden5:59
xG 0.06–0.02 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Pirri – Trocheck6:36
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Jokinen – Shaw8:56
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Gudbranson9:58
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson2:19
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Campbell10:54
xG 0.23–0.24 (50%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).