Thu, Dec 10, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Philadelphia Flyers 4, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 312 | 17 | 429 |
| STL | 010 | 113 | 114 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:35STLRobby FabbriAssists: Dmitrij Jaskin · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 3:15PHIMichael RafflAssists: Brayden Schenn, Claude Giroux · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 6:39PHIMatt ReadAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Wayne Simmonds · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 18:06PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Nick Schultz · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 7:37STLDavid BackesPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–2
- P3 19:58PHIRyan WhiteENAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.50 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:58STLVladimir Tarasenko: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:58PHIBrayden Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:22STLJori Lehtera: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:59PHIWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:54PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Read – Couturier10:56
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Giroux – Schenn – Raffl11:43
xG 0.36–0.33 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Umberger – White – Laughton9:32
xG 0.10–0.19 (35%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Voracek – Bellemare9:23
xG 0.09–0.51 (14%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gudas16:12
xG 0.53–0.21 (71%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
- Manning – Gostisbehere12:37
xG 0.19–0.33 (37%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Schultz – Medvedev13:43
xG 0.08–0.65 (12%)attempts 6–21goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Paajarvi – Tarasenko13:04
xG 0.61–0.48 (56%)attempts 16–12goals 0–2
- Lehtera – Jaskin – Fabbri8:37
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves7:14
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Brouwer12:36
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Parayko11:38
xG 0.50–0.09 (85%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Lindbohm10:25
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk2:30
xG 0.10–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).