Thu, Dec 10, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 15 | 17 | 217 | 429 |
| WPG | 311 | 015 | 39 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Drew Stafford, Mathieu Perreault · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 2:22WPGAdam LowryAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Anthony Peluso · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 10:48WPGDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Bryan Little · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P1 15:38CBJBoone JennerAssists: David Savard, Ryan Johansen · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 19:04CBJScott HartnellPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.44 xG2–3
- P3 4:03WPGDrew StaffordAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 7:36WPGMathieu PerreaultGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 13:21CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 18:16CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.50 xG4–5
- P3 19:15WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:14WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:54WPGMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:54CBJGregory Campbell: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P1 9:54CBJGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:54CBJGregory Campbell: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 8:57CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:12WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:23WPGToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:40CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:07WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:27WPGChris Thorburn: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:27CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Dubinsky – Foligno3:58
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Johansen – Jenner – Saad10:39
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Calvert – Atkinson – Wennberg2:22
xG 0.10–0.03 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Wennberg6:23
xG 0.05–0.07 (42%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bodnarchuk – Murray14:01
xG 0.45–0.44 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
- Tyutin – Prout13:44
xG 0.32–0.60 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Johnson – Savard18:35
xG 0.48–1.02 (32%)attempts 15–19goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Perreault – Scheifele11:27
xG 0.89–0.24 (78%)attempts 16–9goals 3–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little10:47
xG 0.55–0.20 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Peluso – Lowry – Copp6:08
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Ehlers10:06
xG 0.04–0.70 (5%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Chiarot15:15
xG 1.24–0.21 (86%)attempts 21–7goals 3–1
- Enstrom – Myers14:06
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba13:08
xG 0.17–0.28 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).