Fri, Dec 11, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
Detroit Red Wings 2, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 210 | 05 | 04 | 229 |
| NJD | 010 | 017 | 29 | 12 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:51DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 16:08DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Brad Richards, Mike Green · Snap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 2:40NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Stephen Gionta · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 14:40NJDSergey KalininPPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Jordin Tootoo · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 4:20NJDKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Lee Stempniak · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:16DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:05NJDJoseph Blandisi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:51DETHenrik Zetterberg: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P2 8:40NJDBrian O'Neill: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:19NJDPatrik Elias: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:25DETAlexey Marchenko: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:59DETHenrik Zetterberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Kalinin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Tatar – Sheahan9:42
xG 0.41–0.23 (65%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Andersson – Jurco – Glendening4:32
xG 0.31–0.21 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin13:16
xG 0.22–0.37 (37%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Richards – Datsyuk – Helm10:57
xG 0.47–0.84 (36%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – DeKeyser16:59
xG 0.87–0.71 (55%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Smith – Marchenko13:24
xG 0.67–0.52 (56%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green11:32
xG 0.04–1.14 (4%)attempts 2–18goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTlusty – Palmieri – Blandisi6:43
xG 0.70–0.56 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Elias – Kennedy – Kalinin9:36
xG 0.38–0.29 (56%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Stempniak – Josefson9:02
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Tootoo – Gionta2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Gelinas8:36
xG 1.12–0.21 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Moore – Severson14:54
xG 1.32–0.58 (70%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Greene – Schlemko2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).