Fri, Dec 11, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Kings 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 113 | 012 | 113 | 02 | 2 | 340 |
| PIT | 010 | 118 | 111 | 03 | 1 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:34LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Alec Martinez, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 18:45PITEric FehrAssists: Matt Cullen, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 0:34LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 18:50PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Chris Kunitz, David Perron · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PIT David Perron scored
- 2. LAK Anze Kopitar scored
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 4. LAK Dustin Brown stopped
- 5. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
- 6. LAK Tanner Pearson stopped
- 7. PIT Nick Bonino stopped
- 8. LAK Marian Gaborik scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:05LAKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:17LAKMarian Gaborik: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:55LAKJeff Carter: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:55LAKBrayden McNabb: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:55PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:31PITOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:38PITDavid Perron: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Kopitar – Pearson12:04
xG 0.87–0.24 (78%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Brown – Mersch – Shore9:25
xG 0.46–0.24 (65%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Nolan – Weal – Andreoff7:09
xG 0.68–0.49 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Carter – Lucic – Toffoli10:54
xG 0.39–0.90 (30%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb17:51
xG 1.20–0.81 (60%)attempts 26–20goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – McBain7:46
xG 0.53–0.47 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez17:47
xG 0.51–0.47 (52%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Hornqvist – Bonino10:32
xG 1.08–0.36 (75%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Plotnikov2:55
xG 0.06–0.15 (30%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Perron12:17
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Crosby – Bennett13:06
xG 0.63–0.78 (45%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Dumoulin15:20
xG 1.29–0.42 (75%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Cole12:31
xG 0.65–0.55 (54%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Warsofsky – Maatta17:40
xG 0.34–1.43 (19%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).