Fri, Dec 11, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 16 | 05 | 120 |
| DAL | 018 | 216 | 110 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:23PHIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 14:06DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Jason Spezza, Johnny Oduya · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 17:28DALAntoine RousselGWGAssists: Cody Eakin, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–2
- P3 19:07DALJamie BennENAssists: Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:27PHIWayne Simmonds: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:59PHIWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:15PHIMatt Read: Holding2 min
- P2 8:33DALCody Eakin: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 10:12PHINick Schultz: Holding2 min
- P2 17:52PHIBrayden Schenn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:56PHIMichael Del Zotto: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:34DALColton Sceviour: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – White – Laughton4:18
xG 0.22–0.05 (83%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Schenn5:10
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – Schenn – Raffl6:16
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare2:31
xG 0.02–0.35 (6%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Del Zotto – Gudas13:41
xG 0.20–0.40 (33%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Manning – Gostisbehere10:32
xG 0.09–0.37 (20%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Medvedev2:41
xG 0.31–0.60 (34%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Roussel – Eakin8:54
xG 1.03–0.15 (87%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Spezza – Eaves – Janmark9:46
xG 0.70–0.03 (96%)attempts 22–5goals 1–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin9:47
xG 0.73–0.11 (87%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Fiddler – Sceviour5:16
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Demers12:11
xG 1.30–0.26 (83%)attempts 21–6goals 2–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg13:43
xG 0.78–0.13 (86%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Benn – Jokipakka10:57
xG 0.69–0.16 (81%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).