Fri, Dec 11, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
New York Rangers 5, Edmonton Oilers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 29 | 216 | 534 |
| EDM | 315 | 015 | 47 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:35EDMLauri KorpikoskiPPAssists: Iiro Pakarinen, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–1
- P1 12:16NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Chris Kreider, Dylan McIlrath · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 15:47EDMLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Matt Hendricks, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–2
- P1 16:57EDMTeddy PurcellAssists: Taylor Hall, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 0:53NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Henrik Lundqvist · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 8:44NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Rick Nash, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 0:18EDMTaylor HallAssists: Teddy Purcell, Leon Draisaitl · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 2:40EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Taylor Hall, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 6:28NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Rick Nash, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.37 xG4–5
- P3 18:14NYRRick NashPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.34 xG5–5
- P3 18:26EDMTaylor HallGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Teddy Purcell · Snap, 0.16 xG5–6
- P3 19:22EDMLauri KorpikoskiENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.45 xG5–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:08EDMAnders Nilsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 5:23NYRChris Kreider: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 9:27NYRJ.T. Miller: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:13NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:07EDMTeddy Purcell: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Miller7:23
xG 0.77–0.13 (86%)attempts 13–3goals 2–1
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Hayes8:41
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Lindberg – Etem – Fast7:56
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Brassard – Zuccarello – Miller4:27
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Yandle5:10
xG 0.59–0.11 (84%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Boyle – Staal13:44
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Yandle – McIlrath12:58
xG 0.30–0.17 (65%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Hall – Draisaitl12:37
xG 0.65–0.20 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 4–1
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Letestu10:12
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Gazdic – Lander – Pakarinen6:40
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira11:26
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Klefbom8:19
xG 0.83–0.04 (95%)attempts 20–1goals 1–0
- Gryba – Nurse2:11
xG 0.18–0.05 (80%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Gryba – Davidson12:18
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).