Sat, Dec 12, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 1, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 07 | 114 | 127 |
| BOS | 110 | 110 | 15 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:35BOSRyan SpoonerAssists: Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 8:00BOSRyan SpoonerPPGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 13:56FLAReilly SmithAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Brandon Pirri · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 18:37BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.53 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P2 6:24FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:24BOSZac Rinaldo: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:24FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:19BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:15BOSZac Rinaldo: Charging2 min
- P3 6:15FLAShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:15FLAShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:15BOSZac Rinaldo: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Talbot won the faceoff against MacKenzie
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck2:33
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov8:27
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Shaw – Huberdeau – Barkov2:56
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Jagr – Jokinen – Trocheck4:05
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Campbell13:36
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Campbell – Ekblad2:00
xG 0.19–0.06 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Olsen – Gudbranson10:35
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Krejci – Beleskey12:52
xG 0.69–0.12 (85%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Ferraro9:09
xG 0.10–0.04 (70%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Hayes – Spooner – Vatrano8:22
xG 0.24–0.37 (39%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Connolly14:46
xG 0.15–0.80 (16%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Miller13:30
xG 0.46–0.06 (88%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug15:48
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug2:10
xG 0.04–0.08 (34%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).