Sat, Dec 12, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Islanders 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 14 | 17 | 07 | 11 | 319 |
| CBJ | 09 | 113 | 16 | 02 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:21NYIKyle OkposoUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 5:08CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Boone Jenner, Brandon Dubinsky · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 7:10NYIFrans NielsenPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.49 xG2–1
- P3 8:20CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: David Savard, Scott Hartnell · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 2:16NYIKyle OkposoGWGAssists: Josh Bailey · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 19:10CBJCam Atkinson: Interference2 min
- P2 1:43CBJAndrew Bodnarchuk: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:05CBJKevin Connauton: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Tavares – Nelson14:52
xG 0.79–0.59 (57%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Strome7:48
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee9:18
xG 0.28–0.48 (36%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Cizikas2:39
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Leddy19:53
xG 0.94–0.86 (52%)attempts 19–19goals 1–1
- Boychuk – de Haan19:04
xG 0.35–0.79 (31%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Strait – Hickey11:30
xG 0.12–0.75 (14%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Foligno – Wennberg3:33
xG 0.33–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Calvert – Atkinson – Wennberg5:43
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Campbell – Clarkson – Karlsson6:31
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Calvert2:42
xG 0.12–0.02 (88%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Connauton13:32
xG 0.69–0.26 (73%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Bodnarchuk – Murray15:44
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Murray2:25
xG 0.25–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).