Sat, Dec 12, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Dallas Stars 0, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 011 | 010 | 026 |
| STL | 117 | 02 | 27 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:00STLDavid BackesPPGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–1
- P3 11:10STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: David Backes · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 15:35STLRyan ReavesAssists: Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 1:26DALJason Spezza: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 4:29DALVernon Fiddler: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:07STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:19STLDavid Backes: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:19DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:28DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:28STLPetteri Lindbohm: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:06STLDmitrij Jaskin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:45DALJason Demers: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:00STLColton Parayko: Holding2 min
- P3 17:42DALPatrick Eaves: Minor2 min
- P3 17:42STLAlex Pietrangelo: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:42STLAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin10:55
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Hemsky – Fiddler – Sceviour5:17
xG 0.02–0.03 (41%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Sharp – Janmark4:21
xG 0.04–0.12 (27%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Eaves – Janmark7:26
xG 0.23–0.31 (42%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Demers14:09
xG 0.46–0.06 (88%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Benn – Oleksiak10:18
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Klingberg15:17
xG 0.19–0.62 (23%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Jaskin – Fabbri9:22
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Stastny – Paajarvi – Tarasenko9:21
xG 0.22–0.09 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Steen – Brouwer – Lehtera2:02
xG 0.03–0.05 (38%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves8:49
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Parayko14:21
xG 0.80–0.10 (89%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:47
xG 0.21–0.40 (34%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Lindbohm11:20
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).