Sat, Dec 12, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New York Rangers 4, Calgary Flames 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 05 | 315 | 00 | 429 |
| CGY | 09 | 210 | 26 | 12 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:56NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Kevin Hayes · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 17:41CGYJohnny GaudreauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 17:58CGYMason RaymondAssists: Michael Frolik · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 2:32CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: David Jones, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 4:57CGYJoe ColborneAssists: Matt Stajan, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 5:13NYRTanner GlassAssists: Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 15:06NYRDan BoyleAssists: Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 18:48NYRMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
- OT 2:09CGYTJ BrodieGWGAssists: Kris Russell, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:54NYRMats Zuccarello: Interference2 min
- P2 0:30NYRChris Kreider: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:02CGYSean Monahan: Holding2 min
- P2 4:33NYROscar Lindberg: Interference2 min
- P2 9:43CGYDavid Jones: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:29CGYMicheal Ferland: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:14CGYSean Monahan: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:15CGYMarkus Granlund: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Glass – Etem9:22
xG 0.83–0.34 (71%)attempts 12–7goals 1–2
- Kreider – Fast – Miller2:13
xG 0.15–0.03 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello12:07
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Hayes – Miller6:13
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Girardi3:20
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Boyle – Staal9:13
xG 0.73–0.67 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh10:54
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Granlund – Bennett9:46
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Raymond – Frolik – Backlund7:56
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Stajan – Colborne – Ferland6:52
xG 0.20–0.21 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Jones – Gaudreau – Monahan15:12
xG 0.34–0.67 (34%)attempts 8–16goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Hamilton13:03
xG 0.84–0.70 (54%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- Wideman – Smid10:04
xG 0.57–0.55 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 2–2
- Russell – Brodie3:12
xG 0.01–0.01 (55%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).