Sun, Dec 13, 2015·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
New Jersey Devils 0, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 07 | 011 | 027 |
| NYI | 211 | 212 | 07 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:43NYIMarek ZidlickyGWGAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 11:53NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Kyle Okposo, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 7:28NYIMatt MartinAssists: Casey Cizikas, Calvin de Haan · Tip-in, 0.35 xG0–3
- P2 19:17NYIMarek ZidlickyAssists: Thomas Hickey, Steve Bernier · Slap, 0.03 xG0–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:42NJDKyle Palmieri: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:18NJDLee Stempniak: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 4:54NYISteve Bernier: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:54NYISteve Bernier: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:54NJDAdam Larsson: Instigator2 min
- P2 4:54NJDAdam Larsson: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:54NJDAdam Larsson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:45NYIBrock Nelson: Holding2 min
- P3 11:28NYINikolay Kulemin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:15NJDMichael Cammalleri: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:27NYINikolay Kulemin: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Josefson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTlusty – Palmieri – Blandisi8:18
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Elias – Kennedy – Kalinin7:20
xG 0.26–0.43 (37%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Gionta – Matteau7:18
xG 0.14–0.32 (29%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Stempniak – Josefson12:02
xG 0.14–0.41 (25%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Severson10:12
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson3:01
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Gelinas7:33
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Tavares – Nelson11:47
xG 0.45–0.11 (81%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee9:13
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Bernier – Grabovski – Kulemin8:27
xG 0.65–0.41 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:55
xG 0.39–0.25 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Leddy14:13
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Boychuk – de Haan15:55
xG 0.77–0.48 (62%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Hickey12:42
xG 0.61–0.49 (55%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).