Mon, Dec 14, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Edmonton Oilers 3, Boston Bruins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 212 | 03 | 07 | 12 | 324 |
| BOS | 011 | 118 | 120 | 00 | 249 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:29EDMJordan EberleAssists: Eric Gryba, Brandon Davidson · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 13:58EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jordan Eberle, Nikita Nikitin · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 13:29BOSMatt BeleskeyAssists: David Krejci, Zdeno Chara · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 15:22BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Landon Ferraro, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 0:41EDMAndrej SekeraGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:21BOSZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:21EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:47EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:33BOSAdam McQuaid: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:58EDMTaylor Hall: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:21BOSDennis Seidenberg: Holding2 min
- P2 19:50EDMMark Letestu: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:23BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Talbot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira11:44
xG 0.48–0.42 (54%)attempts 8–16goals 2–1
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Letestu9:38
xG 0.01–0.26 (3%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
- Purcell – Hall – Draisaitl11:09
xG 0.39–0.66 (37%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Gazdic – Lander – Pakarinen7:26
xG 0.01–0.71 (1%)attempts 1–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Davidson15:51
xG 0.57–0.47 (55%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Schultz13:41
xG 0.35–0.95 (27%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
- Sekera – Nurse17:05
xG 0.17–0.79 (17%)attempts 8–27goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Spooner – Vatrano8:48
xG 0.71–0.02 (98%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Connolly9:59
xG 0.75–0.32 (70%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Ferraro6:53
xG 0.24–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Beleskey13:54
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 19–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Miller8:49
xG 0.66–0.08 (89%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Miller2:36
xG 0.18–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug11:29
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).